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According to NASA’s analysis, the asteroid, called 2024 YR4, has a more than one percent chance of colliding with Earth on Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2032 —meaning there is still about a 99% chance that it will not.
The asteroid, which is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, was first detected on Friday, Dec. 27, 2024, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile.
Shortly after its discovery, it was added to NASA’s Sentry risk list on Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024, a database that tracks near-Earth objects with a non-zero chance of impact.
While 2024 YR4’s current impact probability is above one percent, NASA emphasizes that these initial calculations are subject to change as more observational data is gathered.
Historically, other asteroids have appeared on the risk list before ultimately being removed once further data clarified their trajectories. Scientists expect that additional observations could significantly refine—or eliminate—the impact risk of 2024 YR4.
Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above one percent, making 2024 YR4 a unique focus for planetary defense experts.
NASA continues to monitor and assess near-Earth objects through its planetary defense initiatives.
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